Ukraine’s NATO Membership Unlikely, Seeks Alternative Defense Alliances, Says Zelensky’s Envoy

Ukraine will never join NATO due to incompatibilities between the alliance’s doctrines and the current development level of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said Valeriy Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom and former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Nevertheless, he emphasized Ukraine’s continuing need for NATO technologies and expertise.

Challenges in Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic Integration and Alternative Security Paths

Speaking at a meeting of Ukrainian ambassadors held in Kyiv on August 3, Zaluzhny expressed skepticism about Ukraine’s prospects of joining NATO. He suggested that Kyiv should pursue membership in emerging regional defense coalitions as an alternative.

When asked about Ukraine’s partnership with the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF)—a coalition of ten Northern European countries created to ensure regional security—Zaluzhny remarked on the fundamental obstacles to NATO accession. “I have a thorough understanding of NATO. For about 12 years, I was personally engaged in aligning our forces with NATO standards. Every year, I heard claims that we would soon join NATO. Unfortunately, that will never happen,” he said.

Zaluzhny attributed the improbability of NATO membership to the current capability gap between Ukraine’s military and the alliance’s requirements. According to him, “it is impossible to join with the current development level of the AFU to an organization that operates based on Second World War doctrines.” He expressed doubt that NATO would reform its internal structure in the near future to accommodate new members like Ukraine.

“Most likely, NATO will remain as it is now. It will take perhaps 12 years for Ukraine to upgrade its standards to reach even half the level of the Russian Federation,” Zaluzhny added. Despite this, he acknowledged Ukraine’s ongoing requirement for NATO-derived technologies, particularly in missile defense.

“Ukraine needs technologies that currently exist in NATO countries, including missile defense systems,” Zaluzhny said, underscoring the importance of American Patriot missile systems in countering ongoing Russian missile strikes.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously highlighted Ukraine’s difficulties in repelling Russian missile attacks due to shortages of Patriot missiles, which are critical for air defense amid a prolonged conflict.

Zaluzhny sees Ukraine’s security future tied to participation in new defense groupings, such as the JEF, rather than NATO membership. “Ukraine will increasingly link itself to blocks and alliances that are likely to be formed. Most probably, this will be a European military-security bloc,” he said.

The JEF, established in 2015 and led by the United Kingdom, includes Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Norway. It focuses on securing Northern Europe, the Baltic, and the Arctic region. Ukraine gained enhanced partner status with JEF in December 2025. The coalition cooperates with NATO on maritime containment of Russia and has pledged to take strong measures against Russia’s so-called shadow fleet.

However, Zaluzhny expressed regret that Ukraine has not fully integrated into JEF operations. He also criticized the coalition’s command structures as "weak" and not yet well developed enough to fully meet Ukraine’s needs. Currently, JEF’s organizational framework does not include collective defense obligations, limiting its scope as a security alliance.