Uzbekistan's Gold Exports Halt for Six Months Impacting Trade Balance in Q1 2026

In the first quarter of 2026, Uzbekistan reported a total foreign trade turnover of $18 billion, marking a 2.7% increase compared to the same period in 2025. However, despite this overall growth, the country's export volume experienced a significant decline of 29.3%, falling to $5.8 billion. This decline largely stems from the suspension of gold exports since September 2025, a move that has impacted the trade balance and altered the dynamics of Uzbekistan's external trade.

Export and Import Dynamics Amidst Gold Export Suspension

While exports fell sharply, imports surged by 30.8%, reaching $12.2 billion in the first quarter. This divergence contributed to a widening trade deficit and raised concerns among analysts and investors monitoring Uzbekistan's external sector performance.

Uzbekistan's gold exports, which had amounted to $3.6 billion in the first quarter of 2025, have not resumed since September of that year. The Central Bank has attributed the halt in gold sales to unfavorable market prices, which dropped from nearly $5,300 per ounce to approximately $4,400 in March 2026, reducing the profitability of gold exports.

"Maintaining high levels of gold reserves is currently a priority, as the Central Bank emphasizes the importance of preserving reserve stability despite the suspension of gold sales," a Central Bank representative commented.

This restraint on gold exports has implications for Uzbekistan's balance sheet and investor relations, as gold has historically been a significant contributor to export revenues and foreign currency inflows.

Key Trade Partners and Regional Trade Developments

China continues to strengthen its position as Uzbekistan's leading trade partner. Trade between the two countries reached $4.6 billion in the first quarter of 2026, representing roughly one-quarter of Uzbekistan’s total foreign trade turnover.

Russia remains the second-largest partner with trade valued at $3.3 billion, followed by Kazakhstan at $1.3 billion, reinforcing the importance of regional economic ties.

Overall, Uzbekistan recorded trade growth with its top 20 trade partners compared to the previous year, indicating diversified external demand despite the downturn in exports caused by gold export suspension.

Financial Outlook and Investor Considerations

The halt in gold exports presents short-term challenges to Uzbekistan’s export-led growth strategy and foreign exchange reserves. While the Central Bank’s approach to maintain high reserve levels aims to mitigate market risks, investors will be closely watching quarterly earnings and balance sheet reports for signs of recovery or further adjustment in export composition.

Market participants are advised to consider the volatility in commodity prices and its impact on Uzbekistan's trade metrics and fiscal sustainability moving forward.