AfD Wins Saxony-Anhalt Vote, Raising Coalition Risk for Regional Policy

Alternative for Germany secured a clear first-place finish in the September 6 election to the Landtag of Saxony-Anhalt, but the result has left the eastern German state facing a difficult government formation process with direct implications for economic policy, public administration and investor relations.

According to preliminary official results published overnight on Sunday, September 7, after ballots had been counted at all polling stations, the far-right party won 43.8% of the vote. Its candidate for state premier is 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund. AfD chairman Tino Chrupalla has already said Siegmund will put himself forward for the post.

The Christian Democratic Union, the party of incumbent state premier Sven Schulze, won 17.2%, almost half its result in the previous election. The Social Democratic Party received 9.3%, Alliance 90/The Greens 8.9%, and The Left 8.6%. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance also entered the Landtag with 5.3%, while the Free Democratic Party and other parties failed to clear the 5% threshold. Turnout stood at 77.8%.

For companies, lenders and investors tracking Germany's regional policy environment, the central issue is not only the AfD's vote share but the fragmented seat arithmetic. The 83 seats in Saxony-Anhalt's Landtag are expected to be distributed as follows: AfD will receive 39 mandates, the CDU 15, The Left eight, the Greens eight, the SPD eight and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance five.

Coalition Arithmetic Points to Policy Uncertainty

The former governing coalition of the CDU, SPD and FDP suffered a heavy defeat. Since the FDP did not re-enter parliament, the old alliance no longer has a majority. Apart from the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, none of the parties entering the new state parliament has indicated an intention to join a coalition with AfD.

That leaves the state with a political equation that may be hard to reconcile. AfD's 39 seats fall short of a majority but make it by far the largest parliamentary force. A possible minority government made up of the CDU, SPD and Greens, with full support from The Left, would total 40 seats. Under that scenario, the five lawmakers from the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance could become decisive.

For a financial readership, the immediate concern is governability. Saxony-Anhalt's next administration will be responsible for budget priorities, economic development policy, energy positioning and engagement with employers. A prolonged coalition negotiation could delay policy clarity, while a minority arrangement would likely make budget discipline and longer-term investment planning more dependent on shifting parliamentary majorities.

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance may become the pivotal counterparty. Its lead candidate, Thomas Schulze, said after the election that he was open to talks with the far-right party. He told dpa that his party had stated it would negotiate with all parties, including AfD, and was not interested in a political firewall.

“We said that we would hold talks with all parties. That includes AfD,” Thomas Schulze said, according to dpa.

Asked about possible common ground between the two parties, Schulze pointed to Russia policy, saying they had some points of contact, especially on opposition to sanctions that, in his view, were literally destroying the economy. Both parties also support what they describe as affordable energy, including the resumption of oil and gas supplies from Russia.

At the same time, Schulze identified major differences. According to dpa, he said AfD's education policy was completely unsuitable for his party and that their positions on that issue were very far apart. On economic policy, he said the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance maintained a much more socially oriented position. The party has also proposed a non-partisan state premier who would govern with changing majorities involving AfD.

Economic Policy and Energy Exposure Move Into Focus

Siegmund, however, has rejected the idea of abandoning AfD's values and goals for political games, according to Reuters. He ruled out coalitions involving major compromises and said voters should again receive what they voted for after an election. The AfD state leader also rejected the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance proposal for a non-partisan premier.

According to Siegmund, cooperation is possible only with those who support AfD's demand for a clear change of political course within the federal state, whether through a parliamentary group or individual lawmakers. Chrupalla, speaking on ARD, said AfD was ready to make compromises in talks with other parties, including on migration and economic policy, provided they agreed to a change of course.

The election also delivered a personal setback for incumbent premier Sven Schulze. The 47-year-old CDU politician lost not only at the state level but also in his own Magdeburg constituency, where he received 31.7% against AfD candidate Christian Mertens on 35.2%. Schulze became head of the state government at the beginning of 2025 after previously serving as economy minister and as a member of the European Parliament.

The CDU failed to win a single direct mandate. Its candidates were defeated in all 41 constituencies. AfD candidates won 38 constituencies, including Siegmund in Genthin. AfD did not achieve a convincing victory only in the major cities of Magdeburg and Halle. In the 2021 state election, the CDU won direct mandates in 40 of 41 constituencies, while AfD won one.

For business groups and public-sector counterparties, the magnitude of that reversal matters. It weakens the negotiating position of the CDU, reduces continuity from the prior administration and increases the leverage of smaller parties in any future budget or policy package. It may also complicate messaging to investors if coalition talks produce a government dependent on tacit or rotating support rather than a stable parliamentary majority.

Schulze had repeatedly said before the election that he did not want to depend on either the right or the left. Within the CDU, resistance remains to any cooperation with The Left. If Schulze were nominated again for state premier, dissenters could emerge within his own ranks. CDU Landtag member Eva Feußner has already warned Stern magazine that if there were attempts to cooperate with the left, entire local party branches would unanimously leave the party.

The result leaves Saxony-Anhalt with a strong electoral winner but no straightforward governing balance. The next phase will determine whether AfD can convert its 39 seats into executive power, whether a minority alternative can be assembled, or whether the state faces a drawn-out period of political and fiscal uncertainty.